Investigation and Forecast Improvements of Tornadoes in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Abstract

The two major goals of this project are: (1) Advance our understanding of tropical cyclone tornado (TCTOR) cell attributes and environments, focusing on differences between verified tornado warnings and false alarms. (2) Improve the operational forecasting and warning decision process through integration of observed cell attributes and near-cell environments. The specific objectives to accomplish these goals are as follows: (O1) Build a database of all tornadoes and tornado warnings in TCs in the United States since the NEXRAD dual-polarization upgrade that includes radar-based storm attributes and near-storm environment information from model analyses. (O2) Assess the skill of high-resolution model analyses and forecasts in depicting the low-level, near-cell environment for convective cells in TCs and forecast proxies for low-level rotation. (O3) Compare near-cell environment and storm attribute information between verified warnings and false alarms in the climatology to determine differences that may be leveraged to reduce false alarms. (O4) In partnership with NWS collaborators, assess the performance of current radar, high-resolution NWP, and storm-environment based TCTOR forecasting practices and heuristics. (O5) In partnership with NWS collaborators, improve and streamline TCTOR warning practices using information gained from the climatology, including development and evaluation of probabilistic hazard information (PHI) produced by a statistical model trained on data produced in our climatological database.